I unearthed this little nugget through MyDD. It's an article from the Boston Herald from late last fall.
Stephen Roach, the chief economist at investment banking giant Morgan Stanley, has a public reputation for being bearish.
But you should hear what he's saying in private.
Roach met select groups of fund managers downtown last week, including a group at Fidelity.
His prediction: America has no better than a 10 percent chance of avoiding economic ``armageddon.''
Press
were not allowed into the meetings. But the Herald has obtained a copy
of Roach's presentation. A stunned source who was at one meeting said,
``it struck me how extreme he was - much more, it seemed to me, than in
public.''
Roach
sees a 30 percent chance of a slump soon and a 60 percent chance that
``we'll muddle through for a while and delay the eventual armageddon.''
The chance we'll get through OK: one in 10. Maybe.
In
a nutshell, Roach's argument is that America's record trade deficit
means the dollar will keep falling. To keep foreigners buying T-bills
and prevent a resulting rise in inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman
Alan Greenspan will be forced to raise interest rates further and
faster than he wants.
So Bush can preside over our societal, moral, and economic implosions. Congratualtions George! You have hit the trifecta once again. Lucky you!
(We will not sleep well, we credit card holders.)
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